It was the year of 2011
which was the golden year for the silver and in the international markets the
silver had scaled to the 49.81 dollar per ounce and in India the silver leaped
to Rs73, 600/- per kilogram. The prices of the silver are moving in the limited
quarters only specially after 2011 the fall in the international markets and
the recession in the markets of the developed nations.This year in the Indian market silver
commenced with Rs 35,990/- per kilogram and since then the silver is trading in
the limited zone phase. Upon analyzing the international events the rally in
silver is farfetched, China being one of the largest importers is facing the
recession and same is the saga of the European countries and moreover the
Greece crisis dangles and looms large.
The other side of story is
that there is a marginal improvement in the US economy which will make the
grounds for the increase in the interest rates, and even the descending of the
crude prices is a cause of worry for the consumption of the silver. As the
mining is on the decline indicating that the investments in the silver will
make you going laughing all the way to the bank yielding good returns.
Although in the third quarter the movement
will be slow paced but upon the onset of the fourth quarter and the expected
improvement in the international markets silver will be posting ahead of Rs40, 000
per kilogram.
The silver happens to be an
industrial metal as almost 70% is consumed as the industrial metal and the 30%
consumption is investment in the jewellery, at present 19% of the fulfillment
is being done by the scrap and the old silver.
The events in the
international markets and the global economical scenario and to add to it the
forecast and the survey of the world silver survey and the silver institute it
can be deduced that any rally in the silver is ruled out at the moment but the
turn of the events are definitely on the cards in the last quarter of the year
and in the coming 12 months a return between 15-20% is in the offing.
We suggest buying silver at
35,000 levels and on the other hand the supply is expected to be 1016 million
ounce against the consumption of 1039 million ounce. Upon analyzing the graph
of past 15 yrs 2008-the year when the global recession, from 2009 to 2014 the
deterioration in the production as well as the demand was steady, and from the
year of 2015 this cycle is rebound. A year of make or break for the silver.